Since 26 December 2004, considerable attention has been focused on that day's tsunami in particular and on ocean research in India in general. We at NIO have also been asked about the tsunami and NIO's role. These questions have been put to us as individuals, but working in an institute dedicated to ocean research, and to the institute as a whole. Technical information on the tsunami is available on this site. This is an attempt to address other questions, which, in general, fall into four categories.

NIO should have been able to predict this tsunami

Tsunamis are rare in the Indian Ocean. During 1881-2004, 4 tsunamis have been recorded in this region, besides the last of which was on 26 December 2004. In comparison, about 5 tsunamis are recorded in the Pacific Ocean each year.

Surges due to storms (depressions or cyclones), however, are more frequent visitors to the Indian coast, which experiences a few of these systems each year. Hence, in terms of destruction wrought in the coastal region, cyclones and their impact have received attention in India.

A research organisation (in this case, NIO and the oceanographic research community in India) has to prioritise its research programmes. Focus on recurring events like storm surges, the ocean's role in India's climate, and exploration for living and mineral and fuel resources led to tsunamis being ignored.

NIO should have issued warning messages to save lives and property

Tsunami warning systems do not exist in India because of the relative rarity of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean; the Atlantic Ocean also does not have such a system (Read: Can an earthquake and tsunami event like the recent Sumatra event occur in the Atlantic/Caribbean area?). The greater frequency of tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean --- about 5 per year --- has led to much greater investment in tsunami research in the countries that have a coast on the Pacific.

Since the establishement in 1948, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre issues warnings based on seismic events. Out of 20, 15 turn to be false alarms, leading to losses running into trillions of dollars. This led to the establishment of an observational system consisting of pressure gauges located on the sea-bottom, and it is this network of gauges that are primarily used for tsunami warnings in the Pacific.

The comparative rarity of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean has meant that such observational systems do not exist here; hence, there was no chance of a tsunami prediction being made.

We also note that NIO is a research organisation and does not engage in continuous, routine monitoring of oceanic conditions or of seismic activity. It cannot issue such warnings.

NIO should gear up at least for a future event

It is a fact that the tsunami has shaken the scientific community in India. Brain-storming sessions are being organised to see what can be done to minimise the impact in future; NIO is a part of this effort. As a first step, data from tide gauges, which show the timing of the tsunami arrival at some locations on the coast and record its impact in terms of water elevation at the coast, have been made available to the public. Also planned are analysis of the available data and theoretical studies to understand the phenomenon and help document it.

Will NIO’s research prevent losses in future

Tsunami research can be grouped broadly into three categories: (a) the genesis of tsunamis, (b) the propagation of “killer waves” – tsunamis, and (c) control measures. Of these, only the first two are within the purview of NIO and the Indian community dedicated to ocean research; the third requires collective effort on the part of many.

Man is often helpless when faced with the destructive power of nature. Phenomena like tsunamis or storm surges cannot be prevented; we can, at best, hope to put in place a system that enables minimisation of casualties and, wherever possible, of property. It is essential that research is backed by other means like warning systems and disaster management plans. Those living in areas visited by particular vagaries of nature, like the people living in coastal areas in the case of a tsunami or a storm-surge, also need to be part of the process.

The decrease in deaths in India's coastal areas owing to storm surges over the last few decades shows that we can make progress if we make the collective effort. This progress was possible because of the longer period of incubation in research in laboratories, leading to robust, reproducible science, and because of the longer period over which the results of such research was disseminated to the concerned officials and the affected people. It takes time to do both: achieve a level of understanding or knowledge and translate this knowledge into a practical system that benefits many.

This is a large and continuing activity and cannot be done by any single individual or organisation. Help from all is needed. Every individual can contribute to this. Together, we may succeed with tsunamis, as we have over the last few decades with cyclones.