Title: Observing and modelling the interaction between Indian Ocean, atmosphere and coastal seas (OMICS).

Vision :

To make observations to study the variability of the ocean at different time scales and model them for developing a forecasting system for the Indian coastal seas.

Objectives:

• to describe the intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability of physical variables in the Indian coastal seas.
• to assemble a state-of-the-art numerical modelling system to simulate the observations.
  
• to model the interaction between basin scale processes in ocean and atmosphere and the coastal process.
  
• to assess the predictability of coastal processes.
  
• to develop hydrological models for the Indian subcontinent and use them to quantify runoff into the neighbouring seas.
  
• to understand the role of ocean-atmosphere interaction processes relevant to monsoon onset and active-break cycles.
• to study the impacts and vulnerability of the Indian coastline to future sea level rise and changes in extreme sea level

Team Members:
Shetye, S.R.  
Gopalakrishna, V.V.
Rameshkumar, M.R.
Unnikrishnan, A.S. 
Shankar, D.  
Aparna, M.
Neetu, S.
Suresh, I.
Michael, S.G.
Sundar, D.
Almeida, A.M.
Agarvadekar, Y.

• Prologue
• Core investigations
• Background
• State-of-the-art
• Observations and modelling
• Shelf and slope regions
•  Estuaries
• Other investigations
• Hydrological modelling
• Impact of climate change at the coast
• Tsunami
• Monsoon onset and active-break cycles
• Ocean observing system
• Drifting buoys
• Expendible bathythermographs (XBTs)

Prologue

India has a 7500 km long coastline and an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) that spreads over 2 million sq. km (see map). About 25% of India's population lives within 50 km of this coast in the nine states (plus union territories) that comprise coastal peninsular India. Sea-going activities form a significant component of the economy of these states.

Illustration 1: The Indian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)

At one end of this spectrum of economic activity is fishing, with over half a million fishing households dependent on the sea for their livelihood. At the other end of the spectrum is the ongoing exploration for oil and natural gas, the lynchpins of the modern industrial economy, in the Indian EEZ. The investment in this exploration exceeds Rupees eight thousand crores (US$ two billion) per year. In between these two extremes of technology lie several other activities: shipping and ports and and harbours, which have seen a resurgence with the boom in international trade, telecommunication cables that are now critical owing to the growth of India's IT industry, disposal of sewage and wastes, the threat posed by which has increased as a consequence of the growing industrial economy, and tourism and recreation, which have also seen an increase with the economic boom.

Irrespective of the technological savviness of the activity, the people involved would like to know what the conditions are likely to be out there at sea. In other words, they would like to have a prediction or forecast of the conditions at sea that impinge on their activity, and they do make predictions based on methods accessible to them.

Ocean forecasting, therefore, is not new to India. The Survey of India has been making routine predictions of the tide for over a century for the ports in India and some neighbouring countries. The India Meteorological Department has been making forecasts of storm surges. The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has been making forecasts of potential fishing zones based on satellite-derived temperature and is making experimental forecasts for sea state (surface waves) and tidal currents in selected areas. The Indian Navy has its own forecasting centres.

For those who venture out to sea, however, a forecasting system should routinely provide forecasts on how it is going to be out there while they are at sea. Such a system is lacking in India today, but there are plans to develop one. Any such forecasting system will have to address the key physical processes that determine the conditions at sea. The science that underlies successful prediction has to be put in place for predictions for the seas around India to be based on firm scientific foundations.

Building the science underlying a forecasting system for the Indian seas is the core objective of this project, which also includes a few other investigations. A formal statement of the project objectives is given separately.

The project is closely connected to three other SIP components, which study biogeochemistry and make observations of sea level and winds and near-coastal currents.